High-Resolution Road Vehicle Collision Prediction for the City of Montreal

Road accidents are an important issue of our modern societies, responsible for millions of deaths and injuries every year in the world. In Quebec only, in 2018, road accidents are responsible for 359 deaths and 33 thousands of injuries. In this paper, we show how one can leverage open datasets of a city like Montreal, Canada, to create high-resolution accident prediction models, using big data analytics. Compared to other studies in road accident prediction, we have a much higher prediction resolution, i.e., our models predict the occurrence of an accident within an hour, on road segments defined by intersections. Such models could be used in the context of road accident prevention, but also to identify key factors that can lead to a road accident, and consequently, help elaborate new policies. We tested various machine learning methods to deal with the severe class imbalance inherent to accident prediction problems. In particular, we implemented the Balanced Random Forest algorithm, a variant of the Random Forest machine learning algorithm in Apache Spark. Interestingly, we found that in our case, Balanced Random Forest does not perform significantly better than Random Forest. Experimental results show that 85% of road vehicle collisions are detected by our model with a false positive rate of 13%. The examples identified as positive are likely to correspond to high-risk situations. In addition, we identify the most important predictors of vehicle collisions for the area of Montreal: the count of accidents on the same road segment during previous years, the temperature, the day of the year, the hour and the visibility

Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. Exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytic approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g. the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. E. 15 pages, 7 figure

Unconventional aspects of electronic transport in delafossite oxides

The electronic transport properties of the delafossite oxides ABO$_2$ are usually understood in terms of two well separated entities, namely, the triangular A$^+$ and (BO$_2$)$^-$ layers. Here we review several cases among this extensive family of materials where the transport depends on the interlayer coupling and displays unconventional properties. We review the doped thermoelectrics based on CuRhO$_2$ and CuCrO$_2$, which show a high-temperature recovery of Fermi-liquid transport exponents, as well as the highly anisotropic metals PdCoO$_2$, PtCoO$_2$ and PdCrO$_2$ where the sheer simplicity of the Fermi surface leads to unconventional transport. We present some of the theoretical tools that have been used to investigate these transport properties and review what can and cannot be learned from the extensive set of electronic structure calculations that have been performed.Comment: 35 pages, 19 figure

Percolation on random networks with arbitrary k-core structure

The k-core decomposition of a network has thus far mainly served as a powerful tool for the empirical study of complex networks. We now propose its explicit integration in a theoretical model. We introduce a Hard-core Random Network model that generates maximally random networks with arbitrary degree distribution and arbitrary k-core structure. We then solve exactly the bond percolation problem on the HRN model and produce fast and precise analytical estimates for the corresponding real networks. Extensive comparison with selected databases reveals that our approach performs better than existing models, while requiring less input information.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Growing networks of overlapping communities with internal structure

We introduce an intuitive model that describes both the emergence of community structure and the evolution of the internal structure of communities in growing social networks. The model comprises two complementary mechanisms: One mechanism accounts for the evolution of the internal link structure of a single community, and the second mechanism coordinates the growth of multiple overlapping communities. The first mechanism is based on the assumption that each node establishes links with its neighbors and introduces new nodes to the community at different rates. We demonstrate that this simple mechanism gives rise to an effective maximal degree within communities. This observation is related to the anthropological theory known as Dunbar's number, i.e., the empirical observation of a maximal number of ties which an average individual can sustain within its social groups. The second mechanism is based on a recently proposed generalization of preferential attachment to community structure, appropriately called structural preferential attachment (SPA). The combination of these two mechanisms into a single model (SPA+) allows us to reproduce a number of the global statistics of real networks: The distribution of community sizes, of node memberships and of degrees. The SPA+ model also predicts (a) three qualitative regimes for the degree distribution within overlapping communities and (b) strong correlations between the number of communities to which a node belongs and its number of connections within each community. We present empirical evidence that support our findings in real complex networks.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Percolation and the effective structure of complex networks

Analytical approaches to model the structure of complex networks can be distinguished into two groups according to whether they consider an intensive (e.g., fixed degree sequence and random otherwise) or an extensive (e.g., adjacency matrix) description of the network structure. While extensive approaches---such as the state-of-the-art Message Passing Approach---typically yield more accurate predictions, intensive approaches provide crucial insights on the role played by any given structural property in the outcome of dynamical processes. Here we introduce an intensive description that yields almost identical predictions to the ones obtained with MPA for bond percolation. Our approach distinguishes nodes according to two simple statistics: their degree and their position in the core-periphery organization of the network. Our near-exact predictions highlight how accurately capturing the long-range correlations in network structures allows to easily and effectively compress real complex network data.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure